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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe the party is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, for youth, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.