Are You Not Being Entertained? The Decline of Open-Play Goal Scoring

Football match action
The Wolves squad managed 10 fewer scores from open play than at this stage last season.

One of the biggest stories of the Premier League season so far has been the decline of goals scored in open-play scenarios and the way teams are netting increasingly from dead-ball situations instead.

Comparing goal sources to the initial 11 matches last season, we note a drop of 39 scored in open play and 26 more from team set-pieces and spot-kicks, leading to 13 less altogether.

If we look at the broader view, efforts on goal sides are producing have seen a remarkable 370 fewer in open-play than this time last time out.

Regardless of the big increase in set-piece goals, there have actually been only two additional attempts created from these situations outside of spot-kicks, showing how effective teams have been at devising strategies to convert from set-pieces.

Goal Statistics Show a Story

Over 300 goals notched in 110 games so far averages out at 2.74 scores per fixture, if maintained for all 38 games could be the lowest for five years, since 2020-21 (2.69 per game).

However, only under 200 goals coming in open-play averages out 1.78 each match and is on course to be the least for 16 years, since 2009-10 (1.76 per game).

That campaign additionally represents the only Premier League season to witness scoring at a higher rate from set-plays excluding penalties than this season's rate of 0.77 per fixture (0.79 per game).

What Clubs Bear the Most Responsibility?

When it comes to goals scored from open play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced the largest drop, scoring a mere four in 11 games, 10 fewer than at this stage the previous campaign.

Outside of Wolverhampton, England's top division's decline in goals from open play is very much a London phenomenon, with five of the London's seven clubs scoring a minimum of five less scores from open-play than last season.

To be fair, this is mainly because them netting many goals at the start of the previous campaign as opposed to them having difficulty to find the net in open play the current term.

Meanwhile Man City have recorded the biggest increase, with almost every one of the 23 they've scored this season originating in open play.

Set-Piece Success

We've compared newly promoted sides with those that were relegated they took the place of. Play-off winners Sunderland have recorded three extra scores in open play than the Saints did in matchday 11 on their way to the drop the previous campaign.

Regarding scoring from set-plays (not counting spot-kicks), the Gunners and Chelsea have experienced the largest rise, with the two clubs replacing the five fewer scores that they've netted in open-play with identical figures from dead-ball chances.

United have recorded twice as many goals from set-pieces as they managed in the 11 games the previous campaign prior to their coach took charge, while the Black Cats again prove more successful at scoring than the club they replaced they replaced.

Manchester City don't seem to have got the memo about scoring more from set-plays, because they've scored three less than last season, like the Reds, even if this could be because of the tactical shift they have tried to implement.

League-Wide Trends

Six teams – the Gunners, the Blues, the Cottagers, Newcastle, Spurs and West Ham – represent this season's primary examples by netting less goals from open play and more from set-pieces, while Man City stand as the only side to buck the trend to date by doing the complete reverse.

It will be interesting to watch if clubs carry on to rely so heavily on set-plays as the season goes on or if they rediscover their all-round creativity and begin converting increased totals in open-play too.

Thomas Neal
Thomas Neal

A passionate gamer and content creator with years of experience in competitive gaming and community building.